U.S. Equity Market Trades Strongly on Yesterday

* Dollar and Gold price poise ahead of crucial U.S. GDP reading.

* U.S. Equity market spurs up at the end of the quarter.

* Oil prices are stimulated by OPEC+ supply cut extension and heightened geopolitical uncertainties.

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Fundamental Overview

The dollar index (DXY) advanced marginally today, buoyed by anticipation surrounding the upcoming release of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. However, investors are monitoring a slight easing in the U.S. long-term treasury yield from its recent peak at 4.30%, which could exert downward pressure on the dollar’s resilience. Meanwhile, Wall Street witnessed a robust performance, with the Dow Jones leading the charge with gains exceeding 1% yesterday, driven by institutional portfolio rebalancing at the quarter-end and heightened enthusiasm for equities.

In the commodities sector, gold prices remained steady at elevated levels, as investors awaited the release of the U.S. GDP data and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading, both of which are poised to have a direct impact on gold prices. Despite a notable increase in U.S. crude stockpiles, oil prices climbed during the previous session. The decision by OPEC+ to extend supply cuts has overshadowed concerns about demand in the U.S., bolstering oil market sentiment.

Furthermore, Bitcoin (BTC) maintained support above the $69,000 mark, with open interest resurging above $20 billion, indicating renewed enthusiasm among BTC traders. Investors are closely monitoring these developments across asset classes, as they assess potential market implications amid ongoing volatility and uncertainty.

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Current rate hike bets on 1st May Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (90%) VS -25 bps (10%)  

Market Overview

(MT4 System Time)

Source: MQL5 

Economic Calendar

(MT4 System Time)

Source: MQL5 

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently oscillating near its recent peak, challenging the resistance threshold at 104.45, as market participants keenly await the forthcoming U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. This pivotal economic metric is anticipated to be a significant determinant of the dollar’s trajectory, offering insights into the vigor of the U.S. economy. Moreover, the spotlight is also on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a critical measure for projecting the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy directions.

The Dollar Index is on the brink of breaking its recent high level at 104.45, suggesting a bullish bias for the index. The RSI remained at the higher region while the MACD observed a sliding manner, suggesting the bullish momentum is easing slightly. 

Resistance level: 104.45, 104.95

Support level:104.00, 103.65

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XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices are on the rise, approaching the pivotal psychological barrier of $2200, reflecting a proactive stance among market participants in anticipation of pivotal economic indicators. This upward trajectory is predominantly fueled by strategic positioning by traders and investors ahead of key U.S. economic data releases. Notably, attention is focused on today’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and tomorrow’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, both of which are anticipated to provide crucial insights into the state of the U.S. economy.

Gold prices hovering at the $2195 level after breaking above the ascending triangle pattern suggest a bullish bias for gold. The RSI is hovering near the overbought zone, while the MACD shows signs of rebounding from above the zero line, suggesting the bullish momentum remains intact.

Resistance level: 2195.00, 2230.00

Support level: 2175.00, 2160.00

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CL OIL, H4

Crude oil prices have rebounded from recent lows, although they have yet to reclaim their previous peaks, indicating a lack of clear trend reversal. This resurgence comes despite the release of U.S. weekly crude stockpile data, which showed a notable increase compared to the previous reading. However, geopolitical tensions in both the Eurozone and the Middle East have supported oil prices, along with the decision by OPEC+ to extend oil production cuts until the end of June.

Oil prices rebounded above their liquidity zone, suggesting the oil price is trading with a bullish trajectory. The RSI hovers between the 50 level while the MACD flows closely toward the zero line, with both indicators giving a neutral signal for oil prices. 

Resistance level: 82.85, 84.10

Support level: 80.20, 78.00