Monetary Decisions, EU CPI & Tariffs—A Triple Threat for Global Markets

Wednesday, 16 April 2025 – 05:00

China Q1 GDP (YoY)
With Q1 GDP coming in at 5.4%, China’s economic momentum remains intact—for now. But the newly imposed US tariffs on Chinese imports are likely to darken the outlook moving forward, potentially weighing on export-driven sectors. Risk sentiment may turn cautious, especially for commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD), as traders anticipate retaliatory measures or a broader slowdown in Chinese demand.

Wednesday, 16 April 2025 – 09:00

UK CPI (March)
The UK’s 2.8% inflation print keeps pressure on the Bank of England, particularly as Britain is among the countries affected by the US tariff (albeit with a 90-day implementation delay). Markets will watch to see if price pressures persist or ease in the face of global trade uncertainty. A softer CPI read could reinforce GBP downside, especially if growth concerns intensify under tariff-related export strain.

Wednesday, 16 April 2025 – 12:00

Eurozone CPI (YoY, Final)
Inflation figures are expected to confirm a 2.2% YoY headline and 2.3% core, aligning with the ECB’s path toward gradual policy easing. However, the broader backdrop has grown more complex following the US announcement of tariff on Chinese imports, but delayed others by 90 days—on goods from the Eurozone and other partners.If the data surprises to the upside, markets may begin to reprice the pace of easing, potentially supporting the euro.Conversely, if CPI prints below expectations, it would reinforce dovish expectations and weigh on the euro. 

Wednesday, 16 April 2025 – 15:30

US Core & Headline Retail Sales (MoM, March)
US consumers remain in focus with core retail sales expected at 0.3% and headline at 0.2%. Stronger-than-expected prints may reaffirm the Fed’s higher-for-longer narrative, supporting USD strength. A weak read, however, could fuel concerns that monetary tightening is starting to weigh on demand—especially as new US tariffs loom. These measures may raise future consumer prices and dampen spending momentum.

Wednesday, 16 April 2025 – 16:45

BoC Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates at 2.75%, but forward guidance will be key. While Canada faces only a delayed 10% tariff, the potential for escalation could dampen business sentiment and pressure exports. If the BoC highlights external risks or softening domestic data, CAD could weaken further.

Thursday, 17 April 2025 – 15:15

ECB Deposit Facility Rate & Interest Rate Decision (April)
With the ECB set to hold rates at 2.65%, markets will focus on forward guidance, particularly given growing trade frictions. The eurozone faces potential export slowdowns from upcoming tariffs, and ECB President Lagarde’s press conference will be key to understanding how policymakers view the external drag. A dovish tone could accelerate EUR losses, especially if combined with weak inflation or growth signals.

Thursday, 17 April 2025 – 15:30

US Initial Jobless Claims
Labor market data and regional manufacturing performance (expected: 12.5) will round out the week. With rising trade tensions and input cost risks from tariffs, the manufacturing sector may begin showing early signs of strain.