Triple Test Tensions: Markets on Edge

Weekly Market Preview
A high-stakes week is unfolding as markets digest critical U.S. macro data and shifting global trade signals. The Fed’s “triple test”—GDP, Core PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls—is underway, with results shaping the outlook for monetary policy and risk assets into summer. President Trump’s endorsement of Fed Chair Powell, easing rhetoric from Treasury Secretary Bessent on China tariffs, and President Xi’s diplomatic push across Southeast Asia add geopolitical texture to this macro-heavy week. With inflation sticky and growth resilient, central banks globally may be forced to hold rates higher for longer.

Key Events to Watch:

Wednesday, 30 April 2025 – 04:30

China Manufacturing PMI
Previous: 50.5 | Forecast: N/A

China Manufacturing PMI is a key gauge of the country’s manufacturing health. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. In Q1 2025, the index has improved from 49.1 (released on Jan 27) to 50.5 (March release), suggesting a slight recovery in the sector. However, with the US-China trade war escalating since March, the upcoming April PMI becomes even more crucial. It could provide insight into how much the trade war is weighing on China’s economic momentum.

Wednesday, 30 April 2025 – 15:15
US ADP Employment Change
Previous: 155K | Forecast: N/A

The ADP Employment Change measures monthly job creation in the US private sector and is often seen as a preview of the Friday Nonfarm Payrolls report. Although it frequently diverges from NFP figures, it still offers valuable clues about hiring trends. In times of uncertainty, such as during a trade war, stronger or weaker-than-expected ADP results could shape market expectations for the broader jobs report and economic outlook.

Wednesday, 30 April 2025 – 15:30
US GDP (Q1) 
Previous: 2.4% | Forecast: 0.4%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects the total value of goods and services produced in the US. Recent quarters have seen around 2% growth, but Q1 2025 could be different due to the March trade war developments. Although economists haven’t released an official forecast yet, any surprises—positive or negative—will help assess the trade war’s early impact on the economy. This release will be a key focus for investors.

Wednesday, 30 April 2025 – 17:00
Core PCE Price Index (Mar)
Previous: 2.8% | Forecast :N/A

The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, excludes food and energy. It has stayed within the 2–3% range in recent months, with limited market impact. However, the March data could carry more weight, as new tariffs and supply disruptions might trigger inflationary pressures. Traders should watch this closely for signs of price growth that could influence Fed policy expectations.

Friday, 2 May 2025 – 15:30
Nonfarm Payrolls (April)
Previous: 228K | Forecast :130K

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) tracks job creation across the US economy, excluding agriculture. It’s one of the most closely watched economic indicators due to its influence on market sentiment and Fed policy outlook. Historically, actual results often miss forecasts, creating market volatility. With the added uncertainty from the trade war, April’s report could generate stronger-than-usual reactions. A big miss or beat could have significant implications for the dollar, gold, and equities