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8 March 2024,09:09
Weekly Outlook
8 March 2024, 09:09
In January, the annual rate of inflation dropped less than expected to 3.1% from 3.4% in December. Numerous economists and Federal Reserve officials have cautioned that the final push to bring inflation back to the bank target of 2% would be a challenge. While Fed Chairman Powell recently hints at the possibility of a rate cut, he also emphasizes that progress in combating inflation is uncertain. The upcoming data would offer additional insights into the inflation situation.
In December, the United Kingdom officially entered a recession, with the GDP contracting by 0.3% to -0.1% in the last quarter of 2023. These statistics affirm the ongoing trend of prolonged economic stagnation in the U.K. Nonetheless, the recently unveiled 2024 budget statement holds the potential to breathe new life into the economy, marking a rebound from the recession. Investors are eagerly awaiting the data release for additional confirmation, especially since Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has announced that the Office for Business Responsibility (OBR) raised its growth forecasts for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024.
The resolution of the European Central Bank in January 2024 to maintain the status quo – preserving the main refinancing rate at 4.50% and sustaining the rates for the marginal lending facility and deposit facility at 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively – delivers a clear message to the business sector. The prevailing emphasis is on stability, prioritizing it over adaptability for the time being. There is heightened anticipation in the market that the central bank will persist in maintaining its existing stance, especially given recent expressions of policy views by the ECB’s Vice President Guindos.
The US economy created 353,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January, surpassing the expectation of 185,000 by economists. Given the robust U.S economy and steady job growth, the market labor market remains resilient and bullish, reflecting ongoing recovery across various sectors.
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