Economists Expect Fed To Pause Rate Hikes

The Week Ahead: Week of 18 September (GMT+3)

Tuesday, 19 September, 15:30 – US Building Permits (Aug)

There was a slight increase in US July Building Permits, rising from 1.441 million to 1.443 million.The marginal uptick in housing starts indicates a degree of optimism among builders. However, the impact of potential future mortgage rate increases on the market is yet to be determined.

Wednesday, 20 September, 09:00 – UK CPI (YoY) (Aug)

Britain’s annual inflation rate saw a notable decline in July, standing at 6.8% compared to the previous 7.9%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains a crucial metric to watch, as it will serve as an indicator influencing future interest rate decisions by the Bank of England (BoE).

Wednesday, 20 September, 21:00 – US Fed Interest Rate Decision

Most economists anticipate that the Fed will refrain from raising rates in the upcoming week, driven by the need for additional time to assess the repercussions of the continuous rate hikes implemented since March 2022. It is possible that the Fed will maintain its current rate until at least April-June 2024 or even later.

Thursday, 21 September, 10:30 – CH SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3)

Economists suggest that the Swiss National Bank will have another interest rate increase in September, despite inflation having been slowing down more rapidly than the central bank’s projections. The anticipated rate hike of 25 basis points is scheduled for September 21.

Thursday, 21 September, 14:00 – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

The Bank of England’s Governor has suggested that the UK is nearing the peak of the interest rate cycle. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the UK interest rate may reach 5.5% due to surging wages as a measure to combat inflation pressure.