Market Remains Hopeful On Rate Cut? All Eyes On PCE!

Tuesday, 25 June 2024, 16:00 – US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

According to the U.S. Conference Board, consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved in May, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index rising to 102 from 97.5 in April. While the survey indicated a slight decline in consumers’ views of current business conditions, overall sentiment was bolstered by a strong labor market. Fewer respondents reported that jobs were hard to get, offsetting a slight decrease in those who said jobs were plentiful. Despite this, the University of Michigan’s June recent survey hinted at weakening confidence, suggesting U.S. consumers may likely to remain cautious.

Thursday, 27 June 2024, 14:30 – US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

The U.S GDP grew by 1.3% in Q1 2024, a notable drop from the 3.4% growth rate in Q4 2023. This decline was primarily due to downward revisions in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. However, the negative impact was somewhat mitigated by upward revisions in state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and exports. Given the current economic indicators, which include lower-than-expected GDP growth and signs of reduced consumer and business spending, the outlook for the upcoming GDP release is anticipated to be weak.

Friday, 28 June 2024, 08:00 – UK GDP (QoQ)

The UK’s GDP for Q1 2024 showed a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase of 0.6%, surpassing the forecast of 0.4%. This growth follows a decline of 0.3% in Q4 2023, reflecting a significant rebound in economic activity. A notable driver of the growth was the services sector, which increased by 0.7% in Q1 2024. Besides that, consumer-facing services, higher prices in exports and government consumption also played a role in the improvement. With previous upward momentum from Q1 suggesting a positive outlook, the upcoming data is anticipated to reflect continued moderate growth.

Friday, 28 June 2024, 14:30 – U.S Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May)

In April, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation which is the Core PCE Price Index (YoY) remains steady at 2.8%, aligning with forecasts and previous data from April 2024.Stable consumer demand, improved supply chain conditions have helped in maintaining stable price levels for the month. Given the recent trend of stable inflation rates, it is expected that the upcoming data will likely continue to reflect a similar stability unless there are significant economic disruptions or changes in consumer spending patterns.