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7 June 2024,06:03
Weekly Outlook
7 June 2024, 06:03
In April, U.S. consumer prices saw a smaller-than-expected increase, registering at 0.3% compared to the previous 0.4%. This suggests that inflation started to decrease once more at the beginning of the second quarter. As the economy appears to be slowing down and consumer spending is decelerating, upcoming data is expected to further indicate this ongoing cooling phase.
In May, the Federal Reserve decided unanimously to maintain policy rates for the sixth consecutive time, keeping the federal funds target rate at 5.50%, in line with expectations. The Fed described an uncertain outlook for rate cuts in 2024. Although several key U.S. data indicated a cooling economy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to adjust rates at its upcoming meeting, given its perception of the economy as broadly robust. Currently, the probability of an interest rate cut on June 12 is just 0.1% according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, which assesses the probable trajectory for short-term rates based on fixed income markets.
In April, the U.S producer price index, which gauges what producers receive for their goods, rose by 0.5%, marking a 2.2% increase over the past 12 months, the largest rise in a year. However, with March’s figures revised from a 0.2% gain to a 0.1% decline, the situation might not be as dire as it appears, as the significant increase in producer price inflation in April was largely attributed to downward revisions in earlier months. The forthcoming data is anticipated to provide some relief.
In April, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its policy rate at 0.1% as widely expected and reiterated its commitment to bond purchases as decided in March. While the BOJ had previously indicated a potential interest rate hike in 2024, the timing remained uncertain. Economists foresee a possible rate hike between July and September, suggesting that the upcoming BOJ meeting is unlikely to yield any unexpected moves.
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