Market Welcomes Easter, Will Data Egg-cites Next Week?

Monday, 1st April 2024, 16:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

In February, economic activity within the U.S. manufacturing sector continued its contraction for the 16th consecutive month in February with the data stood 47.8 against 49.1 recorded in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The contraction was due to slowing demand and easing output. However, while the manufacturing sector is expected to remain in contraction in the first quarter due to customer order changes, it is moving closer to expansion and business is projected to be strong for the rest of 2024. The market expects that the data will improve for March and slowly rebound for the rest of the year.

Wednesday, 3 April 2024, 14:15 – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)

ADP, a payroll processing firm, reported on Wednesday that private sector job growth in February showed improvement with companies adding 140,000 positions for the month accompanied by a 5.1% increase in annual pay rise, although it fell slightly short of expectations of 149,000 increase. ADP chief economist stated that the jobs gains remain solid, and the labor market is dynamic. With employment growth remaining steady, the upcoming data is expected to remain robust and improved from previous reading.

Wednesday, 3 April 2024, 16:00 – ISM Services PMI (Mar)

The U.S. services industry growth slowed a bit in February with the data came in at 51.7 during its preliminary release, against analyst expectation of 52.0. The decrease was primarily caused by a reduction in employment, yet the gauge for new orders rose to its highest level in six months, indicating inherent resilience in the sector. Service providers have expressed greater positivity regarding the future, with retailers saying business is good and confidence hitting its highest level in 22 months during March. It is anticipated that the data will continue to show expansion, even if the rate of growth slows slightly.

Friday,5 April 2024, 14:30 – U.S Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)

In February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a nonfarm payroll increase of 275,000, exceeding economists’ expectations of 198,000. Job growth was predominantly seen in the services sector, particularly in healthcare, hospitality, and the public sector. Economists predict ongoing strength in the labor market, although this report likely won’t alter the Federal Reserve’s outlook, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously characterized the job market as relatively tight. Investors are now bracing for potential signs of inflation from the upcoming data.