Dollar Flat: Investors Await Key Inflation Report

* After a four-week climb, the Dollar Index sees a slight pullback as investors engage in profit-taking, fueled by positive economic indicators suggesting a potential delay in the Federal Reserve’s easing policy.

* The week features a packed US economic calendar with events like retail sales and Federal Reserve speeches.

Fundamental Overview

The Dollar Index retreats after a four-week climb as investors engage in profit-taking ahead of key inflation data, influenced by positive economic indicators hinting at a potential delay in the Federal Reserve’s easing policy. The US economic calendar is packed with impactful events, including retail sales and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, while gold prices experience a modest pullback due to technical correction and profit-taking. 

Oil prices remain volatile due to Middle East tensions and US refinery challenges. Despite rising US Treasury yields, the US equity market, led by tech stocks like Nvidia, extends gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq aiming for record highs, buoyed by positive fourth-quarter earnings growth estimates.

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Current rate hike bets on 20th March Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (81%) VS -25 bps (19%)  

Economic Calendar

(MT4 System Time)

Source: MQL5  

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index, facing its fourth consecutive week of gains, sees a slight retreat as investors opt for profit-taking before the release of crucial inflation data later in the week. Positive economic indicators have heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may postpone its easing monetary policy, with the inflation report on Tuesday becoming a pivotal factor for further trading signals.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 46, suggesting the index might extend its losses after it successfully breakout since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 104.65, 105.70

Support level: 103.85, 102.15

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GOLD，H4

Gold prices experience a slight retreat, primarily driven by technical correction and profit-taking ahead of several critical events later in the week. Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming economic events, including statements from Federal Reserve members, for potential trading signals.

Gold prices are trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 41, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 2035.00, 2055.00

Support level: 2015.00,  2000.00

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CL Oil, H4:

Despite minor volatility, oil prices maintain their bullish trend, fueled by concerns over Middle East supply disruptions and significant downtime in US refineries. The Energy Information Administration reports a slight increase in US crude stocks, influenced by severe weather conditions. Ongoing Hamas-Israel tensions contribute to the geopolitical landscape impacting oil markets.

Oil prices are trading higher following the prior breakout above the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 65, suggesting the commodity might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory.

Resistance level: 78.65,  81.20

Support level: 75.20, 71.35