USDCAD Drops Amid US Data and Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Fundamental Analysis

* Weak Data: The Canadian dollar has gained strength against the U.S. dollar after weak U.S. economic data was released. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September held steady at 47.2, falling short of the market’s expectation of 47.5. This is the sixth consecutive month the PMI has remained below the 50% mark. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that further rate cuts are probable as the economy stays stable but cautioned against rushing decisions. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also showed willingness to consider a potential 0.5% rate cut in November, contingent on upcoming job growth figures. Additionally, the Canadian dollar has been bolstered by rising crude oil prices, driven by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, where Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel.

Technical Analysis

* Technical Breakout: : USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.34600. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to likely extend its losses after it breaks below the level.

* Resistance and Support: If the bearish momentum persists, there’s a strong likelihood that the price will potentially head towards the support level 1.33350 after it breach below the level 1.34600. Conversely, a potential reversal is also to be expected and the price could head back towards 1.36150.

Potential Risks

Looking ahead, the U.S. ADP Employment Change data will be closely watched by the investors, as it is scheduled for release later today. Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials—including Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Beth Hammack, Alberto Musalem, and Michelle Bowman—are set to give speeches.

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Monitoring

Stay updated on US and Canada data, central bank updates and any shifts in the US Dollar’s strength by following PU Xtrader’s financial news page.

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