Kiwi Slips On Dovish Mood Around RBNZ

Fundamental Analysis

* Kiwi Drift: The New Zealand Dollar continues to weaken, maintaining its downward momentum as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) adopts a dovish stance. The RBNZ is expected to announce a further 50-basis-point rate cut at its November policy meeting, with some market speculation even suggesting a potential 75-basis-point reduction. New Zealand’s weak economic fundamentals, including underwhelming labor market indicators, reinforce expectations of an assertive rate-cut approach from the RBNZ. Meanwhile, demand for the Kiwi has softened amid a stronger U.S. dollar, which is bolstered by favorable U.S. economic data that could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a moderate rate cut in November. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 95.8% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed cut, while expectations for a more substantial 50-basis-point reduction remain low.

Technical Analysis

* Technical Breakout: Recent bearish market structure breakout along with persistent bearish trend suggest the pair to likely further extend its downside.

* Resistance and Support: If the bearish momentum persists, there’s a strong likelihood that the price will potentially head towards the level 0.58750. Conversely, a potential reversal is also to be expected and the price could head back towards 0.61000 after it breach back above the level 0.59850.

Potential Risks

Looking ahead, investors will focus on key upcoming U.S. data, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, GDP, Core PCE Price Index, and Non-Farm Payroll, given the lack of significant data releases from New Zealand this week.

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Monitoring

Stay updated on US and New Zealand data, central bank updates and any shifts in the US Dollar’s strength by following PU Xtrader’s financial news page.

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