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20 March 2025,03:31

Trade Of The Day

USD/JPY Weakens as Fed Maintains Dovish Stance

20 March 2025, 03:31

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Fundamental Analysis

*US Dollar declined against the Japanese Yen following the FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its dovish stance by keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%. Despite concerns over tariff-driven inflation, the Fed maintained its projection for two rate cuts in 2025. Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged an increased risk of recession, but reassured markets that a severe downturn remains unlikely. However, the Fed lowered its economic growth forecast and raised inflation projections, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged easing cycle.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also kept its benchmark rate at 0.5%, citing global economic risks and the uncertainty posed by US trade policies. This decision was widely expected, as the BoJ remains cautious after January’s first rate hike in 17 years. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that global trade tensions and inflation warrant a careful approach before making further policy adjustments. Given these conditions, the Yen remains sensitive to US monetary policy and broader market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

* Technical Breakdown: USD/JPY has experienced a double breakout, falling below both the uptrend line and a key support level. If bearish momentum continues, the pair may decline toward the 147.70 support level. However, MACD indicates weakening bearish momentum, while RSI at 29 suggests oversold conditions, increasing the likelihood of a short-term technical correction. If the downtrend stalls, USD/JPY could retest the 148.45 resistance level.

Potential Risks

Escalating trade war tensions could drive further volatility in USD/JPY.

Learn more about how to navigate the prop trading landscape by checking out PU Xtrader’s trading blogs.

Monitoring

Keep an eye on BoE’s forward guidance on future rate decisions, and global trade developments for further market direction by following PU Xtrader’s financial news page.

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