Join the PU Xtrader Challenge Today
Trade with simulated capital and earn real profits after you pass our trader assessment.
Join the PU Xtrader Challenge Today
Trade with simulated capital and earn real profits after you pass our trader assessment.
4 February 2025,04:30
Daily Market Analysis
4 February 2025, 04:30
*Trump delays Canada-Mexico tariffs by 30 days, lifting risk sentiment.
*China still faces 10% U.S. tariffs today, with investors awaiting further trade talks.
*Dollar and gold retreat as markets shift toward risk-on assets.
Market Summary
Global risk sentiment improved as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso rebounded sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. This temporary relief eased fears of immediate trade disruptions, lifting investor confidence. However, uncertainty remains as Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports is still set to take effect today unless a last-minute agreement is reached.
The improved trade outlook led to a shift away from safe-haven assets, with the U.S. dollar and gold retreating during early Asian trading hours. At the same time, riskier assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies saw a rebound, reflecting renewed optimism.
Despite this, trade tensions remain high as Trump reaffirmed plans to impose tariffs on the European Union. In response, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned of potential EU countermeasures, adding pressure to the euro, which weakened amid ongoing trade uncertainty.
Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision:
Source: CME Fedwatch Tool
0 bps (100.0%) VS -25 bps (0%)
Market Movement
The US dollar retreated slightly as global risk sentiment improved following Trump’s decision to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico. However, downside pressure on the dollar remains limited as investors stay cautious ahead of the 10% tariffs on China, which are still set to take effect. If no trade deal is reached, renewed trade tensions could support the greenback due to its safe-haven appeal. Additionally, expectations of further Federal Reserve policy actions and economic resilience in the US keep the dollar fundamentally strong, despite the temporary pullback.
The Dollar Index is trading lower following retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 55, suggesting the index might extend its losses since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory.
Resistance level: 108.95, 109.90
Support level: 107.95, 107.05
Gold prices initially retreated as risk appetite improved, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. The temporary tariff relief for Canada and Mexico eased market fears, prompting investors to rotate into higher-risk assets. However, uncertainty remains, as the upcoming US-China trade discussions could reignite demand for gold if negotiations deteriorate.
Gold prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 62, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI retreated from overbought territory.
Resistance level: 2830.00, 2845.00
Support level: 2810.00, 2795.00
Euro remained downbeat as Trump reiterated that tariffs on the European Union are “definitely happening”, though he did not specify the timeline. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded, suggesting that the EU would retaliate with its own tariffs if necessary, though he expressed a preference for a negotiated trade deal. The euro remains under bearish pressure, as lingering tariff concerns and potential trade disruptions weigh on investor sentiment.
The EUR/USD is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 44, suggesting the pair might experience technical correction since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory.
Resistance level: 1.0355, 1.0535
Support level: 1.0195, 1.0100
The Canadian dollar rebounded sharply following Trump’s decision to delay tariffs, as the relief boosted investor confidence in North American trade stability. The move reduced immediate downside risks for Canada’s economy, which is highly dependent on trade with the US. Additionally, higher oil prices, driven by improved market sentiment and expectations of resilient demand, further supported the loonie. However, any renewed US-China trade tensions could dampen the recent gains, as broader risk sentiment remains fragile.
USD/CAD is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 35, suggesting the pair might experience technical correction since the RSI rebounded from oversold territory.
Resistance level: 1.4525, 1.4605
Support level: 1.4425, 1.4325
US equities rebounded as the delay in tariffs on Canada and Mexico lifted market sentiment, easing immediate concerns over trade disruptions. Investors welcomed the move, seeing it as a sign of potential trade compromises. The prospect of continued US-China negotiations also fueled optimism, supporting equity gains. However, markets remain highly sensitive to developments in US-China relations.
The Dow is trading higher following the prior rebounded front he support level. However, MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 56, suggesting the index might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory.
Resistance level: 45365.00, 47230.00
Support level: 43910.00, 42885.00
The Hang Seng Index rebounded sharply in early Asian trading hours as investors welcomed the temporary trade relief for Canada and Mexico, hoping for potential spillover effects on US-China trade talks. Optimism over a possible negotiation breakthrough boosted risk appetite, lifting sentiment in Chinese equities. Moving forward, investors will closely monitor developments in US-China trade talks to assess the likelihood of further market gains. Any positive trade progress would enhance the appeal of the Hong Kong market, while setbacks could trigger renewed selling pressure.
HK50 is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 66, suggesting the index might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline.
Resistance level: 21260.00, 23080.00
Support level: 20260.00, 19050.00
Crude oil prices edged lower despite improved market sentiment, as investors assessed the impact of the US delaying tariffs on Canada and Mexico. While the pause eases trade tensions, the US remains the world’s largest crude producer, reducing immediate supply concerns. Additionally, Canada and Mexico’s agreement to strengthen border enforcement efforts could shift market dynamics. However, uncertainty over US-China trade relations persists, with tariffs still set to take effect within hours.
Crude oil prices are trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 43, suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after successfully breakout since the RSI stays below the midline.
Resistance level: 75.05, 77.60
Support level: 72.05, 69.60
Trade with simulated capital and earn real profits after you pass our trader assessment.
5 February 2025, 05:45 President Trump Intervenes Israel-Gaza Geopolitical Issue
4 February 2025, 04:30 Trump Delays Tariffs, CAD Surges
31 January 2025, 03:15 Eye on Today’s PCE
Disclaimer: This website exclusively provides proprietary trading services. We do not engage in any regulated activities, offer investment management services, or manage funds on behalf of external clients. Our trading activities are conducted solely with the firm's own capital, and we do not accept client deposits or manage client accounts. It's important to note that none of the services we provide should be construed as investment or financial services in accordance with applicable laws.
This website offers services related to professional skill and experience assessment, which determine your eligibility to trade with the firm's capital. The outcome of these services is inherently determined by your individual skill level and ability to perform within the trading requirements and objectives outlined for each service separately. Clients are strongly advised to thoroughly understand the requirements of the services before signing up for any.
The content provided on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information presented is based on sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. We disclaim any liability for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website is not directed to residents of certain jurisdictions such as the United States, Singapore, Australia, China and some other specified regions, and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any countries or jurisdictions where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This website is owned by Finzero Cap Ltd, a company incorporated in the Republic of Cyprus under registration number HE414308, with its registered office at 62 Athalassas, Mezzanine, Strovolos 2012, Nicosia, Cyprus. Finzero Cap Ltd serves as the authorized representative for PU Prime Ltd.
